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A Statistical Method for Improving Continental Shelf and Nearshore Marine Climate Predictions

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Oliver, ECJ and Holbrook, NJ (2014) A Statistical Method for Improving Continental Shelf and Nearshore Marine Climate Predictions. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 31. pp. 216-232. ISSN 0739-0572

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Abstract

Spatially and temporally homogeneous measurements of ocean temperature variability at high resolution
on the continental shelf are scarce. Daily estimates of large-scale ocean properties are readily available from
global ocean reanalysis products. However, the ocean models that underpin these reanalysis products tend not
to have been designed for the simulation of complex coastal ocean variability. Hence, across-shelf values are
often poorly represented. This study involved developing a statistical approach to more accurately and robustly
represent SST on the continental shelf informed by large-scale satellite observations and reanalysis
data or model output. Using the southeastern Australian shelf region as a case study, this paper demonstrates
that this statistical model approach generates more accurate estimates of the inshore SST using (i) offshore
SST from Bluelink Reanalysis (BRAN) and (ii) the statistical relationship between inshore and offshore SST
in observations from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer. SST is separated into the mean,
seasonal cycle, and residual variability, and separate models are developed for each component. The offshore
locations used to inform the model are determined by taking into account (i) the quality of BRAN at each
location, (ii) the strength between the inshore and offshore variability, and (iii) the proximity of the inshore
and offshore locations. Model predictions are made for the continental shelf around southeastern Australia.
The role of the mean circulation in providing connectivity between the shelf and the offshore regions is
discussed, and how this information can be used to better inform the choice of model predictor locations,
leading to a hybrid statistical–connectivity model

Item Type: Article
Journal or Publication Title: Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology
Page Range: pp. 216-232
ISSN: 0739-0572
Identification Number - DOI: 10.1175/JTECH-D-13-00052.1
Additional Information:

Copyright 2014 American Meteorological Society

Date Deposited: 20 May 2014 05:42
Last Modified: 18 Nov 2014 05:00
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