Time-dependent mood fluctuations in Antarctic personnel : a meta-analytic review

The third-quarter phenomenon is the dominant theoretical model to explain the psychological impacts of deployment in Antarctica on personnel. It posits that detrimental symptoms to functioning, such as negative mood, increase gradually throughout deployment and peak at the third-quarter point, regardless of overall deployment length. However, there is equivocal support for the model. The current meta-analysis included data from 20 studies (involving 1817 participants) measuring negative mood during deployment to elucidate this discrepancy. Across studies analyses were conducted on three data types; stratified by month utilising repeatedmeasured all time-points meta-analytic techniques, and pre/post deployment data for summer and winter deployment seasons respectively. Moderation analyses were conducted to investigate the impact of personnel's cultural orientation on functioning. Results did not support the proposed parameters of the third-quarter phenomenon, as negative mood did not peak at the third quarter point (August/September) of deployment. Overall effect sizes indicated that negative mood is greater at baseline than the end of deployment for summer and winter deployment seasons, with the direction of this effect influenced by cultural orientation of personnel. These findings have theoretical and practical implications and should be used to guide future research, assisting in the development and modification of preexisting prevention and intervention programs to increase well-being and functioning of personnel during Antarctic deployment.