The Use of Predictive Modelling in Impact Assessment: Implications for Environmental Legislation and Regulation

Abstract

Predictive modelling is now an indispensable tool in the identification of social, economic and environmental impacts and risks. This article appraises its use in the assessment of environmental impacts on the Gordon River of Basslink, the Bass Strait power cable that will plug Tasmania into the National Electricity Market. This study follows a proponent's knowledge claims derived from predictive modelling from their origin in researchers' repoorts to their legitimation as regulatory outcomes. By tracing two modelling comparisons, it will be shown that conclusions on the extent of environmental impacts on the Gordon River changed during the impact assessment process from being considered significant to insignificant and, consequently, how an invocation of environmental regulatory legislation was avoided.