Open Access Repository

Warning Signals of Regime Shifts as Intrinsic Properties of Endogenous Dynamics

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year

Fung, T and Seymour, RM and Johnson, CR (2013) Warning Signals of Regime Shifts as Intrinsic Properties of Endogenous Dynamics. The American Naturalist, 182 (2). pp. 208-222. ISSN 0003-0147

[img]
Preview
PDF (2013 Fung Seymour Johnson Armerican Nat.pdf)
2013_Fung_Seymo...pdf | Download (2MB)
Available under University of Tasmania Standard License.

Abstract

Ecosystem dynamics can exhibit large, nonlinear changes
after small changes in an environmental parameter that passes a
critical threshold. These regime shifts are often associated with loss
of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Because critical thresholds for
regime shifts are hard to determine with precision, some recent studies
have focused on deriving signals from dynamics leading up to
the thresholds. Models in these studies depend on using noise terms
independent of system parameters and variables to add stochasticity.
However, demographic stochasticity, an important source of random
variability, arises directly from system dynamics. In this study, a
framework is developed for modeling demographic stochasticity in
a mechanistic way, incorporating system variables and parameters.
This framework is applied to a deterministic, dynamic model of a
coral reef benthos. The resulting stochastic model indicates that increasing
variance—but not skewness—is consistently found in system
dynamics approaching a critical threshold of grazing pressure. Even
if the threshold is breached, attraction of transient dynamics by a
saddle point provides an opportunity for regime shift reversal by
management intervention. These results suggest that early warning
signals of regime shifts can arise intrinsically in endogenous dynamics
and can be detected without reliance on random environmental
forcings.

Item Type: Article
Journal or Publication Title: The American Naturalist
Page Range: pp. 208-222
ISSN: 0003-0147
Identification Number - DOI: 10.1086/670930
Additional Information:

Copyright 2013 University of Chicago Press

Date Deposited: 02 Sep 2013 04:49
Last Modified: 19 Dec 2014 01:35
Item Statistics: View statistics for this item

Actions (login required)

Item Control Page Item Control Page
TOP