Numerical weather prediction over Antarctica

Operations in Antarctica are very much at the mercy of the weather. From early explorations using skis and dogs sleds, through to modern large scale operations involving shipping, tractor trains, helicopters and large fixed wing aircraft, operating from modern facilities, all have been sidelined when the Antarctic atmosphere has become hostile. Since the earliest days of exploration, weather in Antarctica has been a critical issue in operations, and a focus of observational research. However, in comparison to mid and low latitude regions of the globe our knowledge of high southern latitude meteorology remains relatively poor. The dearth of conventional surface and upper air observations has limited observational studies and numerical modelling over the Antarctic region has not seen the same level of focus as modelling work over the more highly populated areas of the globe. Increasingly, operations are becoming more costly with the introduction of sophisticated scientific instrumentation and the use of larger aircraft, so timely and accurate forecasts are becoming more important. In order to decrease the time spent at sea by scientific and operational staff on crossing the Southern Ocean, the Australian Government has been studying the viability of operating an inter-continental air link between Australia and the Australian bases in East Antarctica. Such an operation is critically dependent on accurate medium to short term weather forecasts, both for on route weather, and most importantly for terminal area weather in Antarctica. Traditionally, only global numerical model output has been available to assist the forecaster in preparing the aviation forecasts. However, the temporal and spatial resolution of these models have been relatively poor, given only limited support to forecasting operations. The focus of this thesis was an analysis of the feasibility of employing a limited area grid point numerical model to operational weather forecasting in East Antarctica and the surrounding Southern Ocean, and using the model to investigate the dynamics associated with critical weather events experienced at Australian stations in East Antarctica.