The quarterly demand for Australian imports : a simple quarterly econometric model of Australia to explain imports

The purpose of this thesis is to establish the significance of the factors that determine the volume of Australian imports. An econometric model is constructed which is simple in form as it does not include price or income equations for the economy. All estimating equations are linear and all variables aggregates. Results are obtained by the simple single equation least squares method from 30 quarterly observations covering the period 1958/59 to the second quarter of 1965/66. The relatively small number of Observations is a limiting factor but they cover the end of a boom, a recession and a recovery of the economy. They also cover a number of periods when artificial limitations were imposed on the demand for imports. These were in the form of import licensing controls. Such a diversity of conditions is rarely found in the space of only 30 quarters. Although the number of periods is rather small for the purposes of statistical estimation the conclusions are based on data that covers a wide variety of circumstances. Therefore it will be unlikely that the results of the study will be biased through the prolonged existence of one set of economic conditions. The final import function enables the conclusion to be reached that 96.4% of the variation in the total imports of goods and services in any quarter to be explained by the independent variables in the function.