Secondary teacher forecasting : a consideration of subject specialities and other selected aspects

Inquiries into teacher supply and demand have recently been undertaken at both State and national levels in Australia. A worsening surplus situation has been predicted for the primary and secondary sectors of most school systems - with a common response being to recommend quite severe reductions in teacher pre-service training intakes, in order that supply and demand may be brought into balance. Because teachers, more markedly in the secondary sector but also in the primary sector, are regarded by employing authorities and training institutions as specialists in one or more subject areas, it was considered that supply and demand forecasts would be most useful for planning purposes if they could be Cast at the level of each subject speciality. The type of forecasting model used in the inquiries and also used on a more regular basis by educational systems, has appeared as a fairly rudimentary device, capable of making only the broadest responses to possible changes in policy and other educational variables. Accordingly, the teaching situations in a sample of secondary schools in the Tasmanian Department of Education have been analysed for each of the years, 1978, 1979 and 1980. The nature of data collection and analysis has been determined by two general aims. These were: (0 to develop a statistical basis and appropriate mechanisms, to allow the current supply and demand planning model used by the Department to take a detailed account of the subject specialities of secondary school teachers; (ii) to assess the state of a select range of school and educational conditions and, where appropriate, to take into consideration in a supply and demand context, possible changes in these conditions. Following the development of a subject specialist forecasting methodology, the issue of secondary teacher subject specialisation has been extended to include a consideration of various other related aspects. For example: the relationship between the nature of pre-service training and subject teaching duties upon appointment to schools; and the establishment of data-bases to assist in the annual allocation of specialists to constituent schools. In addition, the following aspects of the Tasmanian secondary system have been investigated: (0 the pupil-teacher ratio and its relationship with class size; (ii) teacher loadings, particularly the impact of specified loading reductions upon teacher demand projections; (iii)teachers' age and experience, particularly the impact of possible future changes in retirement rates and long service leave entitlements upon teacher supply and demand; (iv) size of schools, particularly the impact of smaller schools upon the central issue of secondary teacher subject specialisation; (v) 'pupil-periods' (the joint measure of pupil enrolments per subject and the portion of the school timetable devoted to the teaching of each subject), which were advanced as the basis of a possible alternative subject specialist demand planning methodology. Major findings in each of the above areas have been presented - as has a list of recommendations for further study within the general area of teacher forecasting.