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Secondary teacher forecasting : a consideration of subject specialities and other selected aspects


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Langford, JW 1989 , 'Secondary teacher forecasting : a consideration of subject specialities and other selected aspects', Coursework Master thesis, University of Tasmania.

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Inquiries into teacher supply and demand have recently been
undertaken at both State and national levels in Australia. A
worsening surplus situation has been predicted for the primary and
secondary sectors of most school systems - with a common response
being to recommend quite severe reductions in teacher pre-service
training intakes, in order that supply and demand may be brought into
balance. Because teachers, more markedly in the secondary sector but
also in the primary sector, are regarded by employing authorities and
training institutions as specialists in one or more subject areas, it
was considered that supply and demand forecasts would be most useful
for planning purposes if they could be Cast at the level of each
subject speciality.
The type of forecasting model used in the inquiries and also used
on a more regular basis by educational systems, has appeared as a
fairly rudimentary device, capable of making only the broadest
responses to possible changes in policy and other educational
Accordingly, the teaching situations in a sample of secondary
schools in the Tasmanian Department of Education have been analysed
for each of the years, 1978, 1979 and 1980. The nature of data
collection and analysis has been determined by two general aims.
These were:
(0 to develop a statistical basis and appropriate mechanisms, to
allow the current supply and demand planning model used by the
Department to take a detailed account of the subject specialities of
secondary school teachers;
(ii) to assess the state of a select range of school and educational
conditions and, where appropriate, to take into consideration in a
supply and demand context, possible changes in these conditions. Following the development of a subject specialist forecasting
methodology, the issue of secondary teacher subject specialisation has
been extended to include a consideration of various other related
aspects. For example: the relationship between the nature of
pre-service training and subject teaching duties upon appointment to
schools; and the establishment of data-bases to assist in the annual
allocation of specialists to constituent schools.
In addition, the following aspects of the Tasmanian secondary
system have been investigated:
(0 the pupil-teacher ratio and its relationship with class size;
(ii) teacher loadings, particularly the impact of specified loading
reductions upon teacher demand projections;
(iii)teachers' age and experience, particularly the impact of possible
future changes in retirement rates and long service leave entitlements
upon teacher supply and demand;
(iv) size of schools, particularly the impact of smaller schools upon
the central issue of secondary teacher subject specialisation;
(v) 'pupil-periods' (the joint measure of pupil enrolments per
subject and the portion of the school timetable devoted to the
teaching of each subject), which were advanced as the basis of a
possible alternative subject specialist demand planning methodology.
Major findings in each of the above areas have been
presented - as has a list of recommendations for further study within
the general area of teacher forecasting.

Item Type: Thesis - Coursework Master
Authors/Creators:Langford, JW
Keywords: High school teachers, Education, Secondary
Copyright Holders: The Author
Copyright Information:

Copyright 1986 the Author - The University is continuing to endeavour to trace the copyright owner(s) and in the meantime this item has been reproduced here in good faith. We would be pleased to hear from the copyright owner(s).

Additional Information:

Thesis (M. Ed. Stud.)--University of Tasmania, 1989. Bibliography: leaves 279-283

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