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Abstract

This thesis describes the development of a food safety risk assessment framework
for the Australian dairy industry, through the collection of specific information regarding
that industry and its collation and organisation into a structured and flexible spreadsheet
model. The risk assessment model framework was developed for use as a tool for
evaluating, identifying and prioritising research needs. Developed in Excel (Microsoft
Corp.) with @Risk (Palisade Corp.) as an add-in, the model uses a stochastic approach
to evaluate the likely concentration of hazards that may be present in liquid milk. Those
hazards include: Escherichia coli, Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella spp.,
Campylobacter spp., Staphylococcus aureus and Yersinia enterocolitica, Bacillus
cereus, antibiotic and herbicide residues. The structure of the model allows for multiple
hazards to be modelled in a single simulation. Flexibility of the spreadsheet model
allows for manipulation of the input distribution 'parameters. This enables the evaluation
of the effect on hazard concentration in liquid milk to be determined from specific.
contamination events at the farm level. The effect of pasteurisation on microbiological
hazards was examined together with the validity of log-linear thermal inactivation
kinetics. Model estimates for antibiotic residues show that there is less than 10-3 chance
of exceeding the MRL when starting with an initial probability of 0.0016 that each cow
is contaminated and 0.1 grams of residue is present in milk from each contaminated
cow. Microbiological hazards are not expected to survive pasteurisation given the
estimated concentrations of those hazards entering the milk supply from the farm level
and the reliability of the pasteurisation process.

Item Type:	Thesis - Unspecified
Authors/Creators:	Rasmussen, Sven K. J.(Sven Karl John)
Keywords:	Dairy products industry, Dairy products industry
Copyright Holders:	The Author
Additional Information:	Thesis (M.Agr.Sc.)--University of Tasmania, 2004. Includes bibliographical references
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