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A philosophy for the development of kinetic models in predictive microbiology

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Ross, T (1993) A philosophy for the development of kinetic models in predictive microbiology. PhD thesis, University of Tasmania.

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Abstract

The development of predictive microbiology is reviewed and specific limitations
relating to the generation of kinetic models identified. The issues of variability of
response, lag time response, fluctuating environments and their effects, microbial
interactions, choice of model for describing bacterial growth curves, and mechanistic
versus empirical models are discussed and exemplified using experimental data. A
philosophy for the development of reliable predictive kinetic models is developed
and the appropriateness of that philosophy examined by simulations and reference to
novel and independently published experimental data.
Specifically, the use of turbidimetric techniques is advocated for primary model
development, methods of calibration to traditional (i.e. viable count) methods
demonstrated, and the reliability of that calibration demonstrated. Using that
methodology, models for the growth of several strains of Staphylococcus aureus
and Listeria monocytogenes are generated. Novel indices of the reliability of models
are developed, and used to assess the S. aureus 3b and the L. monocytogenes models,
for constant environmental conditions, by comparison to published and novel data.
An assessment of the three~parameter (temperature, water activity, pH) square-root
model is made using data for the growth of L. monocytogenes. A deliberately
minimal experimental design was used to 'test to destruction' the proposed
methodology, and revealed potential shortcomings of the lack of replication.
It is concluded that the experimental strategy proposed offers an efficient method for
generating the quantity of data required for the development of reliable kinetic
models from which to predict the growth of spoilage and pathogenic organisms of
relevance to foods.
Technologies for the transfer of validated, laboratory-generated models to the food
industry are demonstrated, and a mechanistic interpretation of the basis of the
empirical square-root relationship developed.

Item Type: Thesis (PhD)
Copyright Holders: The Author
Copyright Information:

Copyright 1993 the Author - The University is continuing to endeavour to trace the copyright owner(s) and in the meantime this item has been reproduced here in good faith. We would be pleased to hear from the copyright owner(s).

Date Deposited: 24 Mar 2015 00:42
Last Modified: 29 Apr 2016 00:38
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