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Abstract

In this paper we propose a new indicator of monthly global real economic activity, named
world steel production. We use world steel production, OECD industrial production index
and Kilian’s rea index to forecast world real GDP, and key commodity prices. We find that
world steel production generates large statistically significant gains in forecasting world real
GDP and oil prices, relative to an autoregressive benchmark. A forecast combination of the
three indices produces statistically significant gains in forecasting world real GDP, oil,
natural gas, gold and fertilizer prices, relative to an autoregressive benchmark.

Item Type:	Report (Discussion Paper)
Authors/Creators:	Ravazzolo, F and Vespignani, J
Keywords:	global real economic activity, world steel production, forecasting
Publisher:	University of Tasmania
Copyright Information:	Copyright 2017 University of Tasmania
Additional Information:	JEL Codes: E1, E3, C1, C5, C8 Discussion Paper Series N 2017-08
Item Statistics:	View statistics for this item

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