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World steel production: a new monthly indicator of global real economic activity

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Ravazzolo, F and Vespignani, J (2017) World steel production: a new monthly indicator of global real economic activity. Discussion Paper. University of Tasmania.

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Abstract

In this paper we propose a new indicator of monthly global real economic activity, named
world steel production. We use world steel production, OECD industrial production index
and Kilian’s rea index to forecast world real GDP, and key commodity prices. We find that
world steel production generates large statistically significant gains in forecasting world real
GDP and oil prices, relative to an autoregressive benchmark. A forecast combination of the
three indices produces statistically significant gains in forecasting world real GDP, oil,
natural gas, gold and fertilizer prices, relative to an autoregressive benchmark.

Item Type: Report (Discussion Paper)
Keywords: global real economic activity, world steel production, forecasting
Publisher: University of Tasmania
Copyright Information:

Copyright 2017 University of Tasmania

Additional Information:

JEL Codes: E1, E3, C1, C5, C8
Discussion Paper Series N 2017-08

Date Deposited: 17 Jul 2017 01:24
Last Modified: 17 Jul 2017 01:24
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