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Abstract

Developing regional scenarios enables planners to engage land managers in discussions about the future, especially in contexts that are complex, uncertain and difficult to control. Richly-crafted qualitative narratives are an effective way to document future scenarios that integrate social, economic and biophysical attributes. Converting such narratives into spatial representations of future landscapes often relies on computational modelling. This paperpresents an alternative technique. Key themes from scenario narratives are translated into spatial representations using simple rule sets within a Geographic Information System (GIS). The technique was applied to a case study exploring future scenarios for biodiversity in a predominantly privately-owned agricultural landscape. Iterative analysis of scenarios and their spatial implications enables land managers to explore outcomes from potentialinterventions and identify strategies that might mitigate the impact of future issues of environmental concern.

Item Type:	Article
Authors/Creators:	Carter, O and Mitchell, MS and Porfririo, LL and Hugh, S and Lockwood, M and Gilfedder, LA and Lefroy, EC
Keywords:	spatial planning, alternative futures, scenario visualisation, landscape change, private land conservation, Tasmanian Midlands
Journal or Publication Title:	Conservation and Society
Publisher:	Medknow Publications and Media Pvt. Ltd.
ISSN:	0975-3133
DOI / ID Number:	10.4103/cs.cs_15_121
Copyright Information:	© Carter et al. 2017. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 Generic (CC BY 2.5) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/
Related URLs:	UTAS Profile: Mitchell, MS Google Scholar: Lockwood, M UTAS Profile: Lockwood, M Google Scholar: Lefroy, EC UTAS Profile: Lefroy, EC
Item Statistics:	View statistics for this item

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