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Uncertainty of the 20th century sea-level rise due to vertical land motion errors

Santamaria-Gomez, A, Gravelle, M, Dangendorf, S, Marcos, M, Spada, G and Woppelmann, G 2017 , 'Uncertainty of the 20th century sea-level rise due to vertical land motion errors' , Earth and Planetary Science Letters, vol. 473 , pp. 24-32 , doi: 10.1016/j.epsl.2017.05.038.

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Abstract

Assessing the vertical land motion (VLM) at tide gauges (TG) is crucial to understanding global and regional mean sea-level changes (SLC) over the last century. However, estimating VLM with accuracy better than a few tenths of a millimeter per year is not a trivial undertaking and many factors, including the reference frame uncertainty, must be considered. Using a novel reconstruction approach and updated geodetic VLM corrections, we found the terrestrial reference frame and the estimated VLM uncertainty may contribute to the global SLC rate error by ±0.2 mmyr-1. In addition, a spurious global SLC acceleration may be introduced up to ±4.8 x 10-3 mmyr-2. Regional SLC rate and acceleration errors may be inflated by a factor 3 compared to the global. The difference of VLM from two independent Glacio-Isostatic Adjustment models introduces global SLC rate and acceleration biases at the level of ±0.1 mmyr-1and 2.8 x 10-3 mmyr-2, increasing up to 0.5 mm yr-1 and 9 x 10-3 mmyr-2 for the regional SLC. Errors in VLM corrections need to be budgeted when considering past and future SLC scenarios.

Item Type: Article
Authors/Creators:Santamaria-Gomez, A and Gravelle, M and Dangendorf, S and Marcos, M and Spada, G and Woppelmann, G
Keywords: vertical land motion, GPS, GIA, reference frame, tide gauges, sea-level reconstruction
Journal or Publication Title: Earth and Planetary Science Letters
Publisher: Elsevier Science Bv
ISSN: 0012-821X
DOI / ID Number: 10.1016/j.epsl.2017.05.038
Copyright Information:

©2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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