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A model for the dynamics of Ross River Virus in the Australian environment

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Denholm, L, Beeton, NJ ORCID: 0000-0002-8513-3165, Forbes, LK ORCID: 0000-0002-9135-3594 and Carver, S ORCID: 0000-0002-3579-7588 2017 , 'A model for the dynamics of Ross River Virus in the Australian environment' , Letters in Biomathmatics, vol. 4, no. 1 , pp. 187-206 , doi: 10.1080/23737867.2017.1359697.

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Abstract

Ross River Disease is a mosquito-borne viral condition that affects pockets of the Australian human population, and can be debilitating in some instances. The evidence is that the virus reservoirs in marsupials, such as kangaroos, and this may account for the unpredictable outbreaks of the disease in humans. Accordingly, we present here a new model for the dynamics of Ross River Virus (RRV) in populations of mosquitoes and kangaroos. We calculate steady-state populations for the sub-groups in each species and demonstrate that naturally occurring oscillations in the populations (limit cycles) do not occur. When seasonal forcing of vector populations and kangaroo birth rates is taken into account, however, the model may predict multi-annual outbreaks and chaos, perhaps explaining the unpredictability of some RRV disease epidemics, particularly across southern Australia. Detailed results in this case are presented.

Item Type: Article
Authors/Creators:Denholm, L and Beeton, NJ and Forbes, LK and Carver, S
Keywords: Ross River Virus, mosquitoes, kangaroos, frequency dependence, seasonal forcing, chaos
Journal or Publication Title: Letters in Biomathmatics
Publisher: Taylor and Francis
ISSN: 2373-7867
DOI / ID Number: 10.1080/23737867.2017.1359697
Copyright Information:

Copyright 2017 The AuthorsLicensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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