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Decomposition: population ageing at a sub-national level using Tasmania, Australia as a case study

Denny, LJ ORCID: 0000-0001-9842-1556 2018 , 'Decomposition: population ageing at a sub-national level using Tasmania, Australia as a case study' , Journal of Population Research , pp. 1-17 , doi: 10.1007/s12546-018-9201-3.

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While population ageing is considered a ‘major concern’ by over half thegovernments worldwide according to the UN and ‘the most important populationissue for the ensuing two decades’ by a 2012 survey of leading demographers,research into population ageing and its causes at a sub-national level has onlyemerged more recently. This paper introduces a model for identifying the factorsinfluencing the change in the mean age of a population. Through decomposition themodel identifies how, and to what extent, each component of demographic change(fertility, mortality, overseas migration and interstate migration) contributes to theoverall change in the mean age of the population over a given period. The paperuses the State of Tasmania, Australia to quantify, for the first time, the differencebetween national and sub-national population ageing. It finds that from 2005 to2015, Tasmania’s predicted mean age increased by an average of 0.222 years perannum compared with 0.108 years per annum for Australia. This differential of0.114 years is largely explained by the ageing effect of interstate migration, averaging0.073 years per annum, which is not relevant at a national level. The paperconfirms that as regional differences between fertility and mortality levels within anation are usually small, it is migration which is predominantly responsible fordifferent changes in the mean age of the population between national and subnationallevels.

Item Type: Article
Authors/Creators:Denny, LJ
Keywords: population ageing, migration, sub-national population ageing, internal migration
Journal or Publication Title: Journal of Population Research
Publisher: Springer Netherlands
ISSN: 1443-2447
DOI / ID Number: 10.1007/s12546-018-9201-3
Copyright Information:

Copyright 2018 Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature

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