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Ice core and climate reanalysis analogs to predict Antarctic and Southern Hemisphere climate changes

Mayewski, PA, Carleton, AM, Birkel, SD, Dixon, D, Kurbatov, AV, Korotkikh, E, McConnell, J, Curran, M, Cole-Dai, J, Jiang, S, Plummer, CT ORCID: 0000-0002-9765-5753, Vance, T, Maasch, KA, Sneed, SB and Handley, M 2017 , 'Ice core and climate reanalysis analogs to predict Antarctic and Southern Hemisphere climate changes' , Quaternary Science Reviews, vol. 155 , pp. 50-66 , doi: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.11.017.

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Abstract

A primary goal of the SCAR (Scientific Committee for Antarctic Research) initiated AntClim21 (Antarctic Climate in the 21st Century) Scientific Research Programme is to develop analogs for understanding past, present and future climates for the Antarctic and Southern Hemisphere. In this contribution to AntClim21 we provide a framework for achieving this goal that includes: a description of basic climate parameters; comparison of existing climate reanalyses; and ice core sodium records as proxies for the frequencies of marine air mass intrusion spanning the past ∼2000 years. The resulting analog examples include: natural variability, a continuation of the current trend in Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate characterized by some regions of warming and some cooling at the surface of the Southern Ocean, Antarctic ozone healing, a generally warming climate and separate increases in the meridional and zonal winds. We emphasize changes in atmospheric circulation because the atmosphere rapidly transports heat, moisture, momentum, and pollutants, throughout the middle to high latitudes. In addition, atmospheric circulation interacts with temporal variations (synoptic to monthly scales, inter-annual, decadal, etc.) of sea ice extent and concentration. We also investigate associations between Antarctic atmospheric circulation features, notably the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), and primary climate teleconnections including the SAM (Southern Annular Mode), ENSO (El Nîno Southern Oscillation), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), and solar irradiance variations.

Item Type: Article
Authors/Creators:Mayewski, PA and Carleton, AM and Birkel, SD and Dixon, D and Kurbatov, AV and Korotkikh, E and McConnell, J and Curran, M and Cole-Dai, J and Jiang, S and Plummer, CT and Vance, T and Maasch, KA and Sneed, SB and Handley, M
Keywords: climate change, analogs, ice cores, climate reanalysis, Antarctica, Southern Hemisphere
Journal or Publication Title: Quaternary Science Reviews
Publisher: Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd
ISSN: 0277-3791
DOI / ID Number: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.11.017
Copyright Information:

© 2016 The Authors

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