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Assessment of an ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasting system for Australia


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Bennett, JC, Wang, QJ, Robertson, DE, Schepen, A, Li, M and Michael, K ORCID: 0000-0002-5427-7393 2017 , 'Assessment of an ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasting system for Australia' , Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol. 21, no. 12 , pp. 6007-6030 , doi: 10.5194/hess-21-6007-2017.

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Despite an increasing availability of skilful long-range streamflow forecasts, many water agencies still rely on simple resampled historical inflow sequences (stochastic scenarios) to plan operations over the coming year. We assess a recently developed forecasting system called "forecast guided stochastic scenarios" (FoGSS) as a skilful alternative to standard stochastic scenarios for the Australian continent. FoGSS uses climate forecasts from a coupled ocean–land–atmosphere prediction system, post-processed with the method of calibration, bridging and merging. Ensemble rainfall forecasts force a monthly rainfall–runoff model, while a staged hydrological error model quantifies and propagates hydrological forecast uncertainty through forecast lead times. FoGSS is able to generate ensemble streamflow forecasts in the form of monthly time series to a 12-month forecast horizon.FoGSS is tested on 63 Australian catchments that cover a wide range of climates, including 21 ephemeral rivers. In all perennial and many ephemeral catchments, FoGSS provides an effective alternative to resampled historical inflow sequences. FoGSS generally produces skilful forecasts at shorter lead times ( Overall, FoGSS is an attractive alternative to historical inflow sequences in all but the driest catchments. We discuss ways in which forecast reliability in very dry catchments could be improved in future work.

Item Type: Article
Authors/Creators:Bennett, JC and Wang, QJ and Robertson, DE and Schepen, A and Li, M and Michael, K
Keywords: forecast guided stochastic scenarios, streamflow forecasting, climate forecasting, inflow sequence
Journal or Publication Title: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Publisher: European Geophysical Soc
ISSN: 1027-5606
DOI / ID Number: 10.5194/hess-21-6007-2017
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© 2017 The Authors. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)

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