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Dynamic reliability assessment of ship grounding using Bayesian Inference

Abaei, MM, Arzaghi, E, Abbassi, R ORCID: 0000-0002-9230-6175, Garaniya, V ORCID: 0000-0002-0090-147X, Javanmardi, M and Chai, S ORCID: 0000-0001-5186-4456 2018 , 'Dynamic reliability assessment of ship grounding using Bayesian Inference' , Ocean Engineering: An International Journal of Research and Development, vol. 159 , pp. 47-55 , doi: 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2018.03.039.

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Abstract

The significant increase in the demand for shipping transportation using large vessels in restricted waters, such as cruising cargo vessels in channels, draws worldwide maritime industries’ attention to mitigating potential grounding risks. Safer ship navigation requires a more accurate prediction tool to estimate the likelihood of a ship striking the seabed. This study presents a safety framework for under keel clearance failure analysis of vessels crossing shallow waters. The developed methodology can be applied by the designers, operators and port managers to maintain their shipping fleets operating at an acceptable level of grounding safety. A Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis is applied to estimate the probability of touching the seabed based on the results of dynamic under keel clearance obtained from time-domain hydrodynamic simulations. To illustrate the application of the proposed method, the performance of a large vessel is assessed when entering the Queensland coastal zone with maximum water depth of 12 m. The framework suggests that for a safe navigation with maximum failure probability of 3×10−5, the vessel should cross the passage at a speed lower than 3 m/s where the maximum tolerable incident wave height is 0.5 m.

Item Type: Article
Authors/Creators:Abaei, MM and Arzaghi, E and Abbassi, R and Garaniya, V and Javanmardi, M and Chai, S
Keywords: ship safety, grounding, under keel clearance, hierarchical, Bayesian analysis
Journal or Publication Title: Ocean Engineering: An International Journal of Research and Development
Publisher: Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd
ISSN: 0029-8018
DOI / ID Number: 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2018.03.039
Copyright Information:

© 2018 Elsevier Ltd

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