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Changing windows of opportunity: past and future climate-driven shifts in temporal persistence of kingfish (Seriola lalandi) oceanographic habitat within south-eastern Australian bioregions

Champion, C, Hobday, AJ, Zhang, X, Pecl, GT ORCID: 0000-0003-0192-4339 and Tracey, SR ORCID: 0000-0002-6735-5899 2018 , 'Changing windows of opportunity: past and future climate-driven shifts in temporal persistence of kingfish (Seriola lalandi) oceanographic habitat within south-eastern Australian bioregions' , Marine and Freshwater Research , pp. 1-10 , doi: 10.1071/MF17387.

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Abstract

Climate-driven shifts in species distributions are occurring rapidly within marine systems and are predicted to continue under climate change. To effectively adapt, marine resource users require information relevant to their activities at decision-making timescales. We model oceanographic habitat suitability for kingfish (Seriola lalandi) from southeastern Australia using multiple environmental variables at monthly time steps over the period 1996–2040. Habitat predictions were used to quantify the temporal persistence (months per year) of suitable oceanographic habitat within six coastal bioregions. A decline in temporal habitat persistence is predicted for the northernmost (equatorward) bioregion, whereas increases are predicted for the three southernmost (poleward) bioregions. We suggest that temporal habitat persistence is an important metric for climate change adaptation because it provides fishery-relevant information. Our methods demonstrate how novel metrics relevant to climate adaptation can be derived from predictions of species’ environmental habitats, and are appropriate for the management of fisheries resources and protection of high conservation value species under future climate change.

Item Type: Article
Authors/Creators:Champion, C and Hobday, AJ and Zhang, X and Pecl, GT and Tracey, SR
Keywords: climate change, fisheries adaptation, fisheries management, global change, habitat suitability model, species distribution model, species redistribution
Journal or Publication Title: Marine and Freshwater Research
Publisher: C S I R O Publishing
ISSN: 1323-1650
DOI / ID Number: 10.1071/MF17387
Copyright Information:

Copyright CSIRO 2018

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