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A flexible hierarchical Bayesian modeling technique for risk analysis of major accidents

Yu, H ORCID: 0000-0002-1076-4608, Khan, F ORCID: 0000-0002-5638-4299 and Veitch, B 2017 , 'A flexible hierarchical Bayesian modeling technique for risk analysis of major accidents' , Risk Analysis, vol. 37, no. 9 , pp. 1668-1682 , doi: 10.1111/risa.12736.

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Abstract

Safety analysis of rare events with potentially catastrophic consequences is challenged by data scarcity and uncertainty. Traditional causation-based approaches, such as fault tree and event tree (used to model rare event), suffer from a number of weaknesses. These include the static structure of the event causation, lack of event occurrence data, and need for reliable prior information. In this study, a new hierarchical Bayesian modeling based technique is proposed to overcome these drawbacks. The proposed technique can be used as a flexible technique for risk analysis of major accidents. It enables both forward and backward analysis in quantitative reasoning and the treatment of interdependence among the model parameters. Source-to-source variability in data sources is also taken into account through a robust probabilistic safety analysis. The applicability of the proposed technique has been demonstrated through a case study in marine and offshore industry.

Item Type: Article
Authors/Creators:Yu, H and Khan, F and Veitch, B
Keywords: event tree, fault tree, hierarchical Bayesian modeling, major accidents, probabilistic risk analysis
Journal or Publication Title: Risk Analysis
Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd
ISSN: 0272-4332
DOI / ID Number: 10.1111/risa.12736
Copyright Information:

Copyright 2017 Society for Risk Analysis

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