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No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI

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Ayarzaguena, B, Polvani, LM, Langematz, U, Akiyoshi, H, Bekki, S, Butchart, N, Dameris, M, Deushi, M, Hardiman, SC, Jockel, P, Klekociuk, A, Marchand, M, Michou, M, Morgenstern, O, O'Connor, FM, Oman, LD, Plummer, DA, Revell, L, Rozanov, E, Saint-Martin, D, Scinocca, J, Stenke, A, Stone, K, Yamashita, Y, Yoshida, K and Zeng, G 2018 , 'No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI' , Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol. 18 , pp. 11277-11287 , doi: 10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018.

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Abstract

Major mid-winter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are the largest instance of wintertime variability in the Arctic stratosphere. Because SSWs are able to cause significant surface weather anomalies on intra-seasonal timescales, several previous studies have focused on their potential future change, as might be induced by anthropogenic forcings. However, a wide range of results have been reported, from a future increase in the frequency of SSWs to an actual decrease. Several factors might explain these contradictory results, notably the use of different metrics for the identification of SSWs and the impact of large climatological biases in single-model studies. To bring some clarity, we here revisit the question of future SSW changes, using an identical set of metrics applied consistently across 12 different models participating in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative. Our analysis reveals that no statistically significant change in the frequency of SSWs will occur over the 21st century, irrespective of the metric used for the identification of the event. Changes in other SSW characteristics – such as their duration, deceleration of the polar night jet, and the tropospheric forcing – are also assessed: again, we find no evidence of future changes over the 21st century.

Item Type: Article
Authors/Creators:Ayarzaguena, B and Polvani, LM and Langematz, U and Akiyoshi, H and Bekki, S and Butchart, N and Dameris, M and Deushi, M and Hardiman, SC and Jockel, P and Klekociuk, A and Marchand, M and Michou, M and Morgenstern, O and O'Connor, FM and Oman, LD and Plummer, DA and Revell, L and Rozanov, E and Saint-Martin, D and Scinocca, J and Stenke, A and Stone, K and Yamashita, Y and Yoshida, K and Zeng, G
Keywords: stratosphere, dynamics, climatology
Journal or Publication Title: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
ISSN: 1680-7316
DOI / ID Number: 10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018
Copyright Information:

Copyright 2018 The Authors. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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