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China's increasing global influence: changes in international growth linkages

Bataa, E, Osborn, DR and Sensier, M 2018 , 'China's increasing global influence: changes in international growth linkages' , Economic Modelling, vol. 74 , pp. 194-206 , doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.2018.05.014.

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Abstract

Changes in linkages between growth in the USA, Euro area and China are investigated utilising an iterative procedure for detecting structural breaks in VAR coefficients and disturbance covariance matrix. We find dynamics to be unchanged and, accounting for volatility changes, cross-country correlations are constant until the end of 2007. Although largely isolated from the other large economies until 2007, growth in China is subsequently strongly related to that of the US and the Euro area. The effects are illustrated using generalised impulse responses and forecast error variance decompositions. The increased international synchronisation found may be associated with the effects of the Great Recession on the US and Euro area together with China's extraordinary export growth since joining the World Trade Organisation in 2001.

Item Type: Article
Authors/Creators:Bataa, E and Osborn, DR and Sensier, M
Keywords: China, international growth, structural breaks, globalisation
Journal or Publication Title: Economic Modelling
Publisher: Elsevier Science Bv
ISSN: 0264-9993
DOI / ID Number: 10.1016/j.econmod.2018.05.014
Copyright Information:

Copyright 2018 Elsevier B.V.

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