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Rapid shifts in distribution and high-latitude persistence of oceanographic habitat revealed using citizen science data from a climate change hotspot

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Champion, C, Hobday, AJ, Tracey, SR ORCID: 0000-0002-6735-5899 and Pecl, GT ORCID: 0000-0003-0192-4339 2018 , 'Rapid shifts in distribution and high-latitude persistence of oceanographic habitat revealed using citizen science data from a climate change hotspot' , Global Change Biology, vol. 24, no. 11 , pp. 5440-5453 , doi: 10.1111/gcb.14398.

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Abstract

The environmental effects of climate change are predicted to cause distribution shifts in manymarine taxa, yet data are often difficult to collect. Quantifying and monitoring species’suitable environmental habitats is a pragmatic approach for assessing changes in speciesdistributions but is underdeveloped for quantifying climate change induced range shifts inmarine systems. Specifically, habitat predictions present opportunities for quantifyingspatiotemporal distribution changes while accounting for sources of natural climate variation.Here we demonstrate the utility of a marine-based habitat model parameterised using citizenscience data and remotely-sensed environmental covariates for quantifying shifts inoceanographic habitat suitability over 22-years for a coastal-pelagic fish species in a climatechange hotspot. Our analyses account for the effects of natural intra- and inter-annual climatevariability to reveal rapid poleward shifts in core (94.4 km decade-1) and poleward edge(108.8 km decade-1) oceanographic habitats. Temporal persistence of suitable oceanographichabitat at high-latitudes also increased by approximately three months over the study period.Our approach demonstrates how marine citizen science data can be used to quantify rangeshifts, but necessitates shifting focus from species distributions directly, to the distribution ofspecies’ environmental habitat preferences.

Item Type: Article
Authors/Creators:Champion, C and Hobday, AJ and Tracey, SR and Pecl, GT
Keywords: citizen science, climate change, global change, habitat suitability model, mixed-effects modelling, range shift, Seriola lalandi, species distribution model, species redistribution
Journal or Publication Title: Global Change Biology
Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
ISSN: 1354-1013
DOI / ID Number: 10.1111/gcb.14398
Copyright Information:

Copyright 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd

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