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A novel algorithm for calculating transition potential in cellular automata models of land-use/cover change

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Roodposhti, MS, Aryal, J ORCID: 0000-0002-4875-2127 and Bryan, BA 2018 , 'A novel algorithm for calculating transition potential in cellular automata models of land-use/cover change' , Environmental Modelling and Software , doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.10.006.

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Abstract

Despite recent advances in quantifying land-use/cover change (LUCC) transition potentials, transition rules are often not transparent and uncertainty is rarely made explicit. Here, we introduce DoTRules - a dictionary of trusted rules - as a transparent alternative to calculate transition potential in cellular automata models. Rules relate LUCC variables to the observed historical changes. Shannon entropy is calculated to assess the uncertainty of each rule, and the most trusted rules are used to project future LUCC. DoTRules produces rule-level uncertainty estimates, which can be mapped. In a case study of the Ahvaz region of Iran, the overall accuracy of LUCC simulation calibrated using DoTRules approach was very similar to simulations calibrated with the state-of-the-art random forest, but DoTRules provides a transparent approach where transition rule information and uncertainty can be readily accessed and interpreted. The results demonstrate that DoTRules has potential to derive new insights into LUCC processes.

Item Type: Article
Authors/Creators:Roodposhti, MS and Aryal, J and Bryan, BA
Keywords: entropy, land-use/cover change, uncertainty, urban planning, modelling, simulation
Journal or Publication Title: Environmental Modelling and Software
Publisher: Elsevier Sci Ltd
ISSN: 1364-8152
DOI / ID Number: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.10.006
Copyright Information:

© 2018 The Authors. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

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