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From data compilation to model validation: a comprehensive analysis of a full deep-sea ecosystem model of the Chatham Rise

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McGregor, VL, Horn, PL, Fulton, EA and Dunn, MR 2019 , 'From data compilation to model validation: a comprehensive analysis of a full deep-sea ecosystem model of the Chatham Rise' , PeerJ, vol. 7 , pp. 1-41 , doi: 10.7717/peerj.6517.

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Abstract

The Chatham Rise is a highly productive deep-sea ecosystem that supports numeroussubstantial commercial fisheries, and is a likely candidate for an ecosystem basedapproach to fisheries management in New Zealand. We present the first end-to-endecosystem model of the Chatham Rise, which is also to the best of our knowledge,the first end-to-end ecosystem model of any deep-sea ecosystem. We describethe process of data compilation through to model validation and analyse theimportance of knowledge gaps with respect to model dynamics and results.The model produces very similar results to fisheries stock assessment models for keyfisheries species, and the population dynamics and system interactions are realistic.Confidence intervals based on bootstrapping oceanographic variables areproduced. The model components that have knowledge gaps and are most likely toinfluence model results were oceanographic variables, and the aggregate speciesgroups ‘seabird’ and ‘cetacean other’. We recommend applications of the model, suchas forecasting biomasses under various fishing regimes, include alternatives that varythese components.

Item Type: Article
Authors/Creators:McGregor, VL and Horn, PL and Fulton, EA and Dunn, MR
Keywords: ecosystem modelling, Chatham Rise, validation, end-to-end, fisheries, deep sea, Atlantis
Journal or Publication Title: PeerJ
Publisher: PeerJ, Ltd.
ISSN: 2167-8359
DOI / ID Number: 10.7717/peerj.6517
Copyright Information:

Copyright 2019 McGregor et al. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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