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Long term implications of climate change on crop planning


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Lewis, A, Randall, M, Elliott, S and Montgomery, J ORCID: 0000-0002-5360-7514 2019 , 'Long term implications of climate change on crop planning', paper presented at the 2019 International Conference on Computational Science, 12-14 June 2019, Faro, Portugal.

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The effects of climate change have been much speculated on in the past few years. Consequently, there has been intense interest in one of its key issues of food security into the future. This is particularly so given population increase, urban encroachment on arable land, and the degradation of the land itself. Recently, work has been done on predicting precipitation and temperature for the next few decades as well as developing optimisation models for crop planning. Combining these together, this paper examines the effects of climate change on a large food producing region in Australia, the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area. For time periods between 1991 and 2071 for dry, average and wet years, an analysis is made about the way that crop mixes will need to change to adapt for the effects of climate change. It is found that sustainable crop choices will change into the future, and that large-scale irrigated agriculture may become unviable in the region in all but the wettest years.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Authors/Creators:Lewis, A and Randall, M and Elliott, S and Montgomery, J
Keywords: crop planning, climate change, water management, optimisation, differential evolution
Journal or Publication Title: Proceedings of the 2019 International Conference on Computational Science
DOI / ID Number: 10.1007/978-3-030-22734-0_27
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Copyright 2019 Springer Nature Switzerland AG

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