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Assessment of mangrove response to projected relative sea-level rise and recent historical reconstruction of shoreline position


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Gilman, E, Ellison, JC and Coleman, R 2007 , 'Assessment of mangrove response to projected relative sea-level rise and recent historical reconstruction of shoreline position' , Environmental Monitoring Assessment, vol. 124, no. 1- 3 , pp. 105-130 , doi: 10.1007/s10661-006-9212-y.

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We predict the decadal change in position of
three American Samoa mangroves from analysis of a
time series of remotely sensed imagery, a geographic
information system, tide gauge data, and projections
for change in sea-level relative to the mangrove surface.
Accurate predictions of changes to coastal ecosystem
boundaries, including in response to projected relative
sea-level rise, enable advanced planning to minimize
and offset anticipated losses and minimize social disruption
and cost of reducing threats to coastal development
and human safety. The observed mean landward
migration of three mangroves’ seaward margins
over four decades was 25, 64, and 72mma−1, 12 to
37 times the observed relative sea-level rise rate. Two
of the sites had clear trends in reductions in mangrove
area, where there was a highly significant correlation
between the change in position of the seaward mangrove
margin and change in relative sea-level. Here
it can be inferred that the force of sea-level rise relative
to the mangrove surface is causing landward migration.
Shoreline movement was variable at a third
site and not significantly correlated with changing sealevel,
where it is likely that forces other than change in
relative sea-level are predominant. Currently, 16.5%,23.4%, and 68.0% of the three mangroves’ landward
margins are obstructed by coastal development from
natural landward migration. The three mangroves could
experience as high as a 50.0% reduction in area by
the year 2100. A 12% reduction in mangrove area
by the year 2100 is possible in the Pacific islands

Item Type: Article
Authors/Creators:Gilman, E and Ellison, JC and Coleman, R
Keywords: American Samoa . Coastal . Erosion . Mangrove . Sea-level rise . Wetland
Journal or Publication Title: Environmental Monitoring Assessment
ISSN: 0167-6369
DOI / ID Number: 10.1007/s10661-006-9212-y
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