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Back to the future: using long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions to improve model projections of Antarctic climate

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Bracegirdle, TJ, Colleoni, F, Abram, NJ, Bertler, NAN, Dixon, DA, England, M, Favier, V, Fogwill, CJ, Fyfe, JC, Goodwin, I, Goosse, H, Hobbs, W ORCID: 0000-0002-2061-0899, Jones, JM, Keller, ED, Khan, AL, Phipps, SJ ORCID: 0000-0001-5657-8782, Raphael, MN, Russell, J, Sime, L, Thomas, ER, van den Broeke, MR and Wainer, I 2019 , 'Back to the future: using long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions to improve model projections of Antarctic climate' , Geosciences, vol. 9, no. 6 , pp. 1-29 , doi: 10.3390/geosciences9060255.

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Abstract

Quantitative estimates of future Antarctic climate change are derived from numerical global climate models. Evaluation of the reliability of climate model projections involves many lines of evidence on past performance combined with knowledge of the processes that need to be represented. Routine model evaluation is mainly based on the modern observational period, which started with the establishment of a network of Antarctic weather stations in 1957/58. This period is too short to evaluate many fundamental aspects of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate system, such as decadal-to-century time-scale climate variability and trends. To help address this gap, we present a new evaluation of potential ways in which long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions may be used, with a particular focus on improving projections. A wide range of data sources and time periods is included, ranging from ship observations of the early 20th century to ice core records spanning hundreds to hundreds of thousands of years to sediment records dating back 34 million years. We conclude that paleo-proxy records and long-term observational datasets are an underused resource in terms of strategies for improving Antarctic climate projections for the 21st century and beyond. We identify priorities and suggest next steps to addressing this.

Item Type: Article
Authors/Creators:Bracegirdle, TJ and Colleoni, F and Abram, NJ and Bertler, NAN and Dixon, DA and England, M and Favier, V and Fogwill, CJ and Fyfe, JC and Goodwin, I and Goosse, H and Hobbs, W and Jones, JM and Keller, ED and Khan, AL and Phipps, SJ and Raphael, MN and Russell, J and Sime, L and Thomas, ER and van den Broeke, MR and Wainer, I
Keywords: Antarctic, climate, paleoclimate, Southern Ocean, CMIP, PMIP, projections
Journal or Publication Title: Geosciences
Publisher: MPDIAG
ISSN: 2076-3263
DOI / ID Number: 10.3390/geosciences9060255
Copyright Information:

Copyright 2019 The Authors. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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