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A quantitative risk analysis model with integrated deliberative Delphi platform for container shipping operational risks

Nguyen, S, Chen, PS-L ORCID: 0000-0002-1513-4365, Du, Y ORCID: 0000-0001-7540-493X and Shi, W ORCID: 0000-0001-6551-0499 2019 , 'A quantitative risk analysis model with integrated deliberative Delphi platform for container shipping operational risks' , Transportation Review. Part E, vol. 129 , pp. 203-227 , doi: 10.1016/j.tre.2019.08.002.

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Abstract

Uncertainty is a fundamental obstacle in container shipping operational risks (CSORs) evaluation and management. This study presents a model to quantitatively analyze CSORs with comprehensive uncertainty handling. The model features a Delphi risk communication platform (RCP) designed to establish a deliberative environment for expert interaction and cooperation. The risk level is assessed through a Bayesian network while a fuzzy-based system is implemented to evaluate the attached base of knowledge. Besides the validation of reliability and robustness by a sensitivity analysis, the conducted case study confirms the feasibility and functionality of the model, especially the impact of the implemented Delphi RCP.

Item Type: Article
Authors/Creators:Nguyen, S and Chen, PS-L and Du, Y and Shi, W
Keywords: container shipping operational risk, risk analysis, Bayesian network, Delphi system
Journal or Publication Title: Transportation Review. Part E
Publisher: Elsevier
ISSN: 1366-5545
DOI / ID Number: 10.1016/j.tre.2019.08.002
Copyright Information:

© 2019 Elsevier Ltd.

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