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Abstract

This paper proposes world steel production as an indicator of global real economic activity. World steel production data is published with only a one-month delay, thereby providing timely information for world real GDP forecasters. We find that world steel production and Lutz Kilian's (2009) index of global real economic activity generate large gains in forecasting world real GDP, relative to an autoregressive benchmark. A forecast combination of world steel production, Kilian's (2009) index of global real economic activity and an index of the industrial production of OECD countries plus six non-OECD emerging economies produces significant gains in forecasting world real GDP, relative to an autoregressive benchmark.

Item Type:	Article
Authors/Creators:	Ravazzolo, F and Vespignani, J
Journal or Publication Title:	Canadian Journal of Economics
Publisher:	Univ Toronto Press Inc
ISSN:	0008-4085
DOI / ID Number:	10.1111/caje.12442
Copyright Information:	© Canadian Economics Association
Related URLs:	Google Scholar: Vespignani, J UTAS Profile: Vespignani, J
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