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Anthropogenic temperature and salinity changes in the Southern Ocean

Hobbs, WR ORCID: 0000-0002-2061-0899, Roach, C, Roy, T, Sallee, J-B and Bindoff, NL ORCID: 0000-0001-5662-9519 2020 , 'Anthropogenic temperature and salinity changes in the Southern Ocean' , Journal of Climate , doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0454.1.

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In this study, we compare observed Southern Ocean temperature and salinity changes with the historical simulations from 13 models the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5), using an optimal fingerprinting framework. We show that there is an unequivocal greenhouse gas-forced warming in the Southern Ocean. This warming is strongest in the Sub-Antarctic Mode Waters, but is also detectable in denser watermasses which has not been shown in previous studies. We also find greenhouse gas-forced salinity changes, most notably a freshening of Antarctic Intermediate Waters. Our analysis also shows that non-greenhouse gas anthropogenic forcings - anthropogenic aerosols and stratospheric ozone depletion – have played an important role in mitigating the Southern Ocean’s warming. However, the detectability of these responses using optimal fingerprinting is model-dependent, and this result is therefore not as robust as for the greenhouse gas response.

Item Type: Article
Authors/Creators:Hobbs, WR and Roach, C and Roy, T and Sallee, J-B and Bindoff, NL
Keywords: Southern Ocean, attribution, climate change
Journal or Publication Title: Journal of Climate
Publisher: Amer Meteorological Soc
ISSN: 0894-8755
DOI / ID Number: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0454.1
Copyright Information:

Copyright 2020 American Meteorological Society

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