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Abstract

In this study, we compare observed Southern Ocean temperature and salinity changes with the historical simulations from 13 models the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5), using an optimal fingerprinting framework. We show that there is an unequivocal greenhouse gas-forced warming in the Southern Ocean. This warming is strongest in the Sub-Antarctic Mode Waters, but is also detectable in denser watermasses which has not been shown in previous studies. We also find greenhouse gas-forced salinity changes, most notably a freshening of Antarctic Intermediate Waters. Our analysis also shows that non-greenhouse gas anthropogenic forcings - anthropogenic aerosols and stratospheric ozone depletion – have played an important role in mitigating the Southern Ocean’s warming. However, the detectability of these responses using optimal fingerprinting is model-dependent, and this result is therefore not as robust as for the greenhouse gas response.

Item Type:	Article
Authors/Creators:	Hobbs, WR and Roach, C and Roy, T and Sallee, J-B and Bindoff, NL
Keywords:	Southern Ocean, attribution, climate change
Journal or Publication Title:	Journal of Climate
Publisher:	Amer Meteorological Soc
ISSN:	0894-8755
DOI / ID Number:	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0454.1
Copyright Information:	Copyright 2020 American Meteorological Society
Related URLs:	UTAS Profile: Hobbs, WR Google Scholar: Bindoff, NL UTAS Profile: Bindoff, NL
Item Statistics:	View statistics for this item

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