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A techno-economic and environmental assessment of long-term energy policies and climate variability impact on the energy system

Emodi, NV, Chaiechi, T and Rabiul Alam Beg, ABM 2019 , 'A techno-economic and environmental assessment of long-term energy policies and climate variability impact on the energy system' , Energy Policy, vol. 128 , pp. 329-346 , doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.01.011.

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Abstract

This paper examines the impact of climate variability and change (CV&C), and energy policies on the futureenergy system in Australia. Scenarios were developed to represent CV&C impacts and policy options, which wereanalysed with the Long-range Energy Alternative and Planning system for the period 2010–2050. The resultsindicate that although energy demand is likely to increase threefold in the business-as-usual scenario, CV&Cfurther increases demand to 150 petajoule. A combined policy option involving modal shift and penetration ofelectric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles results in a 49–53% decrease in transport fuel demand and emissions.The economic analysis reveals a substantial decline in sales revenue and increase in generation costs due to CV&C impacts. Higher renewable energy integration results in lower wholesale electricity prices across independentelectricity markets. Cumulative cost-benefit analysis indicates that economic benefits increase to US$4.9 trillionin an advanced renewable energy scenario. Emissions and energy consumed increased under climatic conditions,but decreased after policy intervention. Ignoring the influence of CV&C may result in underestimation of futureenergy demand and installed capacity in Australia. Therefore, energy and climate policies should consider long-term economic benefits over short-term system costs.

Item Type: Article
Authors/Creators:Emodi, NV and Chaiechi, T and Rabiul Alam Beg, ABM
Keywords: climate variability and change, Australia, LEAP, energy policies, emission reduction, scenario analysis
Journal or Publication Title: Energy Policy
Publisher: Elsevier Sci Ltd
ISSN: 0301-4215
DOI / ID Number: 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.01.011
Copyright Information:

Copyright 2019 Elsevier Ltd.

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