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Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change

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Lotze, HK, Tittensor, DP, Bryndum-Buchholz, A, Eddy, TD, Cheung, WWL, Galbraith, ED, Barange, M, Barrier, N, Bianchi, D, Blanchard, JL ORCID: 0000-0003-0532-4824, Bopp, L, Buchner, M, Bulman, CM, Carozza, DA, Christensen, V, Coll, M, Dunne, JP, Fulton, EA, Jennings, S, Jones, MC, Mackinson, S, Maury, O, Niiranen, S, Oliveros-Ramos, R, Roy, T, Fernandes, JA, Schewe, J, Shin, YJ, Silva, TAM, Steenbeek, J, Stock, CA, Verley, P, Volkholz, J, Walker, ND and Worm, B 2019 , 'Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change' , Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol. 116, no. 26 , pp. 12907-12912 , doi: 10.1073/pnas.1900194116.

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Abstract

While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.

Item Type: Article
Authors/Creators:Lotze, HK and Tittensor, DP and Bryndum-Buchholz, A and Eddy, TD and Cheung, WWL and Galbraith, ED and Barange, M and Barrier, N and Bianchi, D and Blanchard, JL and Bopp, L and Buchner, M and Bulman, CM and Carozza, DA and Christensen, V and Coll, M and Dunne, JP and Fulton, EA and Jennings, S and Jones, MC and Mackinson, S and Maury, O and Niiranen, S and Oliveros-Ramos, R and Roy, T and Fernandes, JA and Schewe, J and Shin, YJ and Silva, TAM and Steenbeek, J and Stock, CA and Verley, P and Volkholz, J and Walker, ND and Worm, B
Keywords: climate change, ensemble models, fish, global, trophic cascades
Journal or Publication Title: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Publisher: Natl Acad Sciences
ISSN: 0027-8424
DOI / ID Number: 10.1073/pnas.1900194116
Copyright Information:

Copyright 2019 the authors. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

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