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Ensemble projections of future climate change impacts on the eastern Bering Sea food web using a multispecies size spectrum model

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Reum, JCP, Blanchard, JL ORCID: 0000-0003-0532-4824, Holsman, KK, Aydin, K, Hollowed, AB, Hermann, AJ, Cheng, W, Faig, A, Haynie, AC and Punt, AE 2020 , 'Ensemble projections of future climate change impacts on the eastern Bering Sea food web using a multispecies size spectrum model' , Frontiers in Marine Science, vol. 7, no. MAR , pp. 1-17 , doi: 10.3389/fmars.2020.00124.

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Abstract

Characterization of uncertainty (variance) in ecosystem projections under climate change is still rare despite its importance for informing decision-making and prioritizing research. We developed an ensemble modeling framework to evaluate the relative importance of different uncertainty sources for food web projections of the eastern Bering Sea (EBS). Specifically, dynamically downscaled projections from Earth System Models (ESM) under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHG) were used to force a multispecies size spectrum model (MSSM) of the EBS food web. In addition to ESM and GHG uncertainty, we incorporated uncertainty from different plausible fisheries management scenarios reflecting shifts in the total allowable catch of flatfish and gadids and different assumptions regarding temperature-dependencies on biological rates in the MSSM. Relative to historical averages (1994–2014), end-of-century (2080–2100 average) ensemble projections of community spawner stock biomass, catches, and mean body size (±standard deviation) decreased by 36% (±21%), 61% (±27%), and 38% (±25%), respectively. Long-term trends were, on average, also negative for the majority of species, but the level of trend consistency between ensemble projections was low for most species. Projection uncertainty for model outputs from ∼2020 to 2040 was driven by inter-annual climate variability for 85% of species and the community as a whole. Thereafter, structural uncertainty (different ESMs, temperature-dependency assumptions) dominated projection uncertainty. Fishery management and GHG emissions scenarios contributed little (

Item Type: Article
Authors/Creators:Reum, JCP and Blanchard, JL and Holsman, KK and Aydin, K and Hollowed, AB and Hermann, AJ and Cheng, W and Faig, A and Haynie, AC and Punt, AE
Keywords: climate impacts, projections, modelling, size-structure, uncertainty partitioning, predictive ecology, Arrhenius factor, body size, size-based food web, cumulative effects, commonality analysis
Journal or Publication Title: Frontiers in Marine Science
Publisher: Frontiers Research Foundation
ISSN: 2296-7745
DOI / ID Number: 10.3389/fmars.2020.00124
Copyright Information:

Copyright © 2020 Reum, Blanchard, Holsman, Aydin, Hollowed, Hermann, Cheng, Faig, Haynie and Punt. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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