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Quantitative foresighting as a means of improving anticipatory scientific capacity and strategic planning

Hobday, AJ, Boschetti, F, Moeseneder, C, Stephenson, RL, Bessey, C, Bulman, CM, Contardo, S, Cvitanovic, C ORCID: 0000-0002-2565-3396, Dambacher, JM, Dutra, LXC, Fulton, EA, Lenton, A, Little, LR, Mapstone, B, McDonald, KS ORCID: 0000-0002-9455-9897, Plaganyi, EE, Pethybridge, H, Rothlisberg, P, Strzelecki, J, Thompson, PA and van Putten, I 2020 , 'Quantitative foresighting as a means of improving anticipatory scientific capacity and strategic planning' , One Earth, vol. 3, no. 5 , pp. 631-644 , doi: 10.1016/j.oneear.2020.10.015.

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Abstract

Decisions about the future are necessarily uncertain, and increasing social-political change and technological disruption compound this uncertainty. Despite this, scientists and scientific organizations must still plan for the future. Foresighting is one approach used to inform thinking about future conditions. We describe a quantitative foresighting approach for a range of general science and marine-specific foresights. Repeat assessment over a 2-year period showed that the time-specific likelihood futures were consistent between years. Our approach can be used to prepare scientists and their institutions for possible futures, and to prioritize among these choices.

Item Type: Article
Authors/Creators:Hobday, AJ and Boschetti, F and Moeseneder, C and Stephenson, RL and Bessey, C and Bulman, CM and Contardo, S and Cvitanovic, C and Dambacher, JM and Dutra, LXC and Fulton, EA and Lenton, A and Little, LR and Mapstone, B and McDonald, KS and Plaganyi, EE and Pethybridge, H and Rothlisberg, P and Strzelecki, J and Thompson, PA and van Putten, I
Keywords: foresighting, futures
Journal or Publication Title: One Earth
Publisher: Cell Press
ISSN: 2590-3330
DOI / ID Number: 10.1016/j.oneear.2020.10.015
Copyright Information:

Crown Copyright 2020 Published by Elsevier Inc

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