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An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) version 0.7.3

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Phipps, SJ ORCID: 0000-0001-5657-8782, Roberts, JL and King, MA ORCID: 0000-0001-5611-9498 2021 , 'An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) version 0.7.3' , Geoscientific Model Development, vol. 14, no. 8 , pp. 5107-5124 , doi: 10.5194/gmd-14-5107-2021.

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Abstract

Physical processes within geoscientific models are sometimes described by simplified schemes known as parameterisations. The values of the parameters within these schemes can be poorly constrained by theory or observation. Uncertainty in the parameter values translates into uncertainty in the outputs of the models. Proper quantification of the uncertainty in model predictions therefore requires a systematic approach for sampling parameter space. In this study, we develop a simple and efficient approach to identify regions of multi-dimensional parameter space that are consistent with observations. Using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model to simulate the present-day state of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, we find that co-dependencies between parameters preclude any simple identification of a single optimal set of parameter values. Approaches such as large ensemble modelling are therefore required in order to generate model predictions that incorporate proper quantification of the uncertainty arising from the parameterisation of physical processes.

Item Type: Article
Authors/Creators:Phipps, SJ and Roberts, JL and King, MA
Keywords: model optimisation, ice sheet model
Journal or Publication Title: Geoscientific Model Development
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
ISSN: 1991-959X
DOI / ID Number: 10.5194/gmd-14-5107-2021
Copyright Information:

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)

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