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Future sea level change under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets


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Payne, AJ, Nowicki, S, Abe-Ouichi, A, Agosta, C, Alexander, P, Albrecht, T, Asay-Davis, X, Aschwanden, A, Barthel, A, Bracegirdle, TJ, Calov, R, Chambers, C, Choi, Y, Cullather, R, Cuzzone, J, Dumas, C, Edwards, TL, Felikson, D, Fettweis, X, Galton-Fenzi, BK, Goelzer, H, Gladstone, R, Golledge, NR, Gregory, JM, Greve, R, Hattermann, T, Hoffman, MJ, Humbert, A, Huybrechts, P, Jourdain, NC, Kleiner, T, Kuipers Munneke, P, Larour, E, Le clec'h, S, Lee, V, Leguy, G, Lipscombe, WH, Little, CM, Lowry, DP, Morlighem, M, Nias, I, Pattyn, F, Pelle, T, Price, SF, Quiquet, A, Reese, R, Ruckamp, M, Schlegel, N-J, Seroussi, H, Shepherd, A, Simon, E, Slater, D, Smith, RS, Straneo, F, Sun, S, Tarasov, L, Trusel, LD, Van Breedam, J, van de Wal, R, van den Broeke, M, Winkelmann, R, Zhao, C ORCID: 0000-0003-0368-1334, Zhang, T and Zwinger, T 2021 , 'Future sea level change under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets' , Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 48, no. 16 , pp. 1-8 , doi: 10.1029/2020GL091741.

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Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.

Item Type: Article
Authors/Creators:Payne, AJ and Nowicki, S and Abe-Ouichi, A and Agosta, C and Alexander, P and Albrecht, T and Asay-Davis, X and Aschwanden, A and Barthel, A and Bracegirdle, TJ and Calov, R and Chambers, C and Choi, Y and Cullather, R and Cuzzone, J and Dumas, C and Edwards, TL and Felikson, D and Fettweis, X and Galton-Fenzi, BK and Goelzer, H and Gladstone, R and Golledge, NR and Gregory, JM and Greve, R and Hattermann, T and Hoffman, MJ and Humbert, A and Huybrechts, P and Jourdain, NC and Kleiner, T and Kuipers Munneke, P and Larour, E and Le clec'h, S and Lee, V and Leguy, G and Lipscombe, WH and Little, CM and Lowry, DP and Morlighem, M and Nias, I and Pattyn, F and Pelle, T and Price, SF and Quiquet, A and Reese, R and Ruckamp, M and Schlegel, N-J and Seroussi, H and Shepherd, A and Simon, E and Slater, D and Smith, RS and Straneo, F and Sun, S and Tarasov, L and Trusel, LD and Van Breedam, J and van de Wal, R and van den Broeke, M and Winkelmann, R and Zhao, C and Zhang, T and Zwinger, T
Keywords: global sea level rise, CMIP5, CMIP6
Journal or Publication Title: Geophysical Research Letters
Publisher: Amer Geophysical Union
ISSN: 0094-8276
DOI / ID Number: 10.1029/2020GL091741
Copyright Information:

© 2021. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) License, (, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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