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International trade and the transmission of shocks: the case of ASEAN-4 and NIE-4 economies

Dungey, M ORCID: 0000-0003-0074-2314, Khan, F ORCID: 0000-0002-5638-4299 and Raghavan, M ORCID: 0000-0002-4123-5004 2018 , 'International trade and the transmission of shocks: the case of ASEAN-4 and NIE-4 economies' , Economic Modelling, vol. 72 , pp. 109-121 , doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.2018.01.008.

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We investigate the effects of the increasing importance of ASEAN-4 and NIE-4 economies in global trade for the transmission of shocks using a structural VAR framework. We specifically account for time variation, using the changing trade links to provide a means of identifying the propagation of economic shocks and spillovers across the US, EU and Asia Pacific economies from 1978 to 2015. The results include evidence of China’s emergence as a major driver of growth in Asian markets. The identification mechanism highlights the relative importance of changing trade relationships versus changing shocks in propagating shocks between global markets, and shows that the international transmission mechanisms have changed substantially over the sample period.

Item Type: Article
Authors/Creators:Dungey, M and Khan, F and Raghavan, M
Keywords: SVAR models, ASEAN, NIE, trade links
Journal or Publication Title: Economic Modelling
Publisher: Elsevier Science Bv
ISSN: 0264-9993
DOI / ID Number: 10.1016/j.econmod.2018.01.008
Copyright Information:

Copyright 2018 Elsevier B.V.

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