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Quantitative risk assessment for ammonia ship-to-ship bunkering based on Bayesian network

Fan, H, Enshaei, H ORCID: 0000-0002-5649-7015, Jayasinghe Arachchillage, SDG ORCID: 0000-0002-3304-9455, Tan, SH and Zhang, C 2021 , 'Quantitative risk assessment for ammonia ship-to-ship bunkering based on Bayesian network' , Process Safety Progress , pp. 1-16 , doi: 10.1002/prs.12326.

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The maritime industry is getting prepared for using ammonia as a fuel to meet thedecarbonization goal. However, ammonia is toxic, corrosive, and flammable, whichposes specific safety challenges during bunkering compared with conventional fuels.The corrosion can be prevented by selecting suitable materials. However, the impactof toxic gas dispersion and fire has high uncertainties, thus risk assessment should beconducted. Currently, there are insufficient risk assessment guidelines for ammoniabunkering available. Therefore, this paper proposes a Bayesian network (BN) basedquantitative risk assessment framework to investigate the potential risks of ammoniain ship-to-ship bunkering considering the toxicity and flammability. The study validates the utility of the proposed framework and demonstrates the BN as an efficientmodel in performing the probabilities calculations and flexible in conducting causaldiagnosis. The results show that toxicity has the greatest impact on the risks ofammonia bunkering compared with flammability. The main innovation of this work isrealizing the efficient quantification of risks for ammonia ship-to-ship bunkering byusing the BN.

Item Type: Article
Authors/Creators:Fan, H and Enshaei, H and Jayasinghe Arachchillage, SDG and Tan, SH and Zhang, C
Keywords: ammonia, Bayesian network, bunkering, extended event tree, marine fuel
Journal or Publication Title: Process Safety Progress
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
ISSN: 1547-5913
DOI / ID Number: 10.1002/prs.12326
Copyright Information:

© 2021 American Institute of Chemical Engineers

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