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The development of conditional probability reasoning


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Watson, JM and Kelly, BA (2007) The development of conditional probability reasoning. International Journal of Mathematical Eduction in Science and Technology, 38 (2). pp. 213-235. ISSN 0020-739X

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Although errors in reasoning about conditional probability have been the focus
of interest of psychologists for a long time, the development of conditional
reasoning in school students has received little attention. This paper considers the
responses of 69 students across grades 3 to 13 in an attempt to model
the development of appropriate reasoning skills. Although acknowledging the
misconceptions observed by earlier researchers, this study seeks a positivist
approach to describe developing understanding by combining mathematical
appropriateness with structural complexity. The results of the study are intended
to inform other researchers, teachers, and curriculum developers.

Item Type: Article
Authors/Creators:Watson, JM and Kelly, BA
Journal or Publication Title: International Journal of Mathematical Eduction in Science and Technology
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Page Range: pp. 213-235
ISSN: 0020-739X
Identification Number - DOI: 10.1080/00207390601002880
Additional Information:

The definitive version is available online at

Date Deposited: 07 Apr 2008 14:25
Last Modified: 18 Nov 2014 03:34
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