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Inference as prediction


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Watson, JM 2007 , 'Inference as prediction' , Australian Mathematics Teacher, vol. 63, no. 1 , 6-Nov .

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Inference, or decision making, is seen in curriculum documents as
the final step in a statistical investigation (Australian Education
Council, 1991). For a formal statistical enquiry this may be associated
with sophisticated tests involving probability distributions. For
young students without the mathematical background to perform
such tests, it is still possible to draw informal inferences based on
data of various sorts, for example by comparing two graphical representations
(e.g., Watson & Moritz, 1999). In doing so it is important
to be able to state the assumptions that are the foundation for the
decision made (Whitin, 2006). This article considers a straightforward
context where students are asked to make predictions. These
predictions are informal inferences that can be based on aspects of
the scenario, the students’ appreciation of the context, and their
cognisance of the data presented.

Item Type: Article
Authors/Creators:Watson, JM
Journal or Publication Title: Australian Mathematics Teacher
Publisher: AAMT
ISSN: 0045-0685
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