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Process-explicit models reveal pathway to extinction for woolly mammoth using pattern-oriented validation

Fordham, DA, Brown, SC, Akcakaya, HR, Brook, BW ORCID: 0000-0002-2491-1517, Haythorne, S, Manica, A, Shoemaker, KT, Austin, JJ, Blonder, B, Pilowsky, J, Rahbek, C and Nogues-Bravo, D 2022 , 'Process-explicit models reveal pathway to extinction for woolly mammoth using pattern-oriented validation' , Ecology Letters, vol. 25, no. 1 , pp. 125-137 , doi: 10.1111/ele.13911.

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Abstract

Pathways to extinction start long before the death of the last individual. However, causes of early stage population declines and the susceptibility of small residual populations to extirpation are typically studied in isolation. Using validated process-explicit models, we disentangle the ecological mechanisms and threats that were integral in the initial decline and later extinction of the woolly mammoth. We show that reconciling ancient DNA data on woolly mammoth population decline with fossil evidence of location and timing of extinction requires process-explicit models with specific demographic and niche constraints, and a constrained synergy of climatic change and human impacts. Validated models needed humans to hasten climate-driven population declines by many millennia, and to allow woolly mammoths to persist in mainland Arctic refugia until the mid-Holocene. Our results show that the role of humans in the extinction dynamics of woolly mammoth began well before the Holocene, exerting lasting effects on the spatial pattern and timing of its range-wide extinction.

Item Type: Article
Authors/Creators:Fordham, DA and Brown, SC and Akcakaya, HR and Brook, BW and Haythorne, S and Manica, A and Shoemaker, KT and Austin, JJ and Blonder, B and Pilowsky, J and Rahbek, C and Nogues-Bravo, D
Keywords: climate change, ecological process, extinction dynamics, mechanistic model, megafauna, metapopulation, Pleistocene-Holocene transition, population model, range dynamics, synergistic threats, mammoth
Journal or Publication Title: Ecology Letters
Publisher: Blackwell Publishing Ltd
ISSN: 1461-023X
DOI / ID Number: 10.1111/ele.13911
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© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd

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