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Abstract

While Pacific climate variability is largely understood based on El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO), the North Pacific focused Pacific decadal oscillation and the basin-wide interdecadalPacific oscillation, the role of the South Pacific, including atmospheric drivers and cross-scaleinteractions, has received less attention. Using reanalysis data and model outputs, here wepropose a paradigm for South Pacific climate variability whereby the atmospheric Pacific-South American (PSA) mode acts to excite multiscale spatiotemporal responses in the upperSouth Pacific Ocean. We find the second mid-troposphere PSA pattern is fundamental tostochastically generate a mid-latitude sea surface temperature quadrupole pattern thatrepresents the optimal precursor for the predictability and evolution of both the South Pacificdecadal oscillation and ENSO several seasons in advance. We find that the PSA mode is thekey driver of oceanic variability in the South Pacific subtropics that generates a potentiallypredictable climate signal linked to the tropics.

Item Type:	Article
Authors/Creators:	Lou, J and O'Kane, TJ and Holbrook, NJ
Keywords:	atmosphere, Pacific-South American mode, oceanic variability, predictability, ENSO
Journal or Publication Title:	Communications Earth & Environment
Publisher:	Nature Publishing Group
ISSN:	2662-4435
DOI / ID Number:	https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00295-4
Copyright Information:	© 2021. The Authors. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) License, (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.
Related URLs:	Google Scholar: Holbrook, NJ UTAS Profile: Holbrook, NJ
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