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Global carbon budget 2020

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Friedlingstein, P, O'Sullivan, M, Jones, MW, Andrew, RM, Hauck, J, Olsen, A, Peters, GP, Peters, W, Pongratz, J, Sitch, S, Le Quere, C, Canadell, JG, Ciais, P, Jackson, RB, Alin, S, Aragao, LEOC, Arneth, A, Arora, V, Bates, NR, Becker, M, Benoit-Cattin, A, Bittig, HC, Bopp, L, Bultan, S, Chandra, N, Chevallier, F, Chini, LP, Evans, W, Florentie, L, Forster, PM, Gasser, T, Gehlen, M, Gilfillan, D, Gkritzalis, T, Gregor, L, Gruber, N, Harris, I, Hartung, K, Haverd, V, Houghton, RA, Ilyina, T, Jain, AK, Joetzjer, E, Kadono, K, Kato, E, Kitidis, V, Korsbakken, JI, Landschutzer, P, Lefevre, N, Lenton, A, Lienert, S, Liu, Z, Lombardozzi, D, Marland, G, Metzl, N, Munro, DR, Nabel, JEMS, Nakaoka, SI, Niwa, Y, O'Brien, K, Ono, T, Palmer, PI, Pierrot, D, Poulter, B, Resplandy, L, Robertson, E, Rodenbeck, C, Schwinger, J, Seferian, R, Skjelvan, I, Smith, AJP, Sutton, AJ, Tanhua, T, Tans, PP, Tian, H, Tilbrook, B, Van Der Werf, G, Vuichard, N, Walker, AP, Wanninkhof, R, Watson, AJ, Willis, D, Wiltshire, AJ, Yuan, W, Yue, X and Zaehle, S 2020 , 'Global carbon budget 2020' , Earth System Science Data, vol. 12, no. 4 , pp. 3269-3340 , doi: 10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020.

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Abstract

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions andtheir redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biospherein a changing climate the global carbon budget is important tobetter understand the global carbon cycle, support the development ofclimate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe andsynthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major componentsof the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement productiondata, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainlydeforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data andbookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directlyand its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes inconcentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrialCO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process modelsconstrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance(BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and theestimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is ameasure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carboncycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the lastdecade available (20102019), EFOS was 9.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), andELUC was 1.6 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1. For the same decade, GATM was 5.1 ± 0.02 GtC yr−1 (2.4 ± 0.01 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 2.5 ±  0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.4 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with a budgetimbalance BIM of −0.1 GtC yr−1 indicating a near balance betweenestimated sources and sinks over the last decade. For the year 2019 alone, thegrowth in EFOS was only about 0.1 % with fossil emissions increasingto 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.7 ±&#8201 ;0.5 GtC yr−1 when cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.8 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1 (42.2 ± 3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2019, GATM was5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEANwas 2.6 ± 0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.1 ± 1.2 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2concentration reached 409.85 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2019. Preliminarydata for 2020, accounting for the COVID-19-induced changes in emissions,suggest a decrease in EFOS relative to 2019 of about −7 % (medianestimate) based on individual estimates from four studies of −6 %, −7 %,−7 % (−3 % to −11 %), and −13 %. Overall, the mean and trend in thecomponents of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over theperiod 19592019, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for therepresentation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison ofestimates from diverse approaches and observations shows (1) no consensusin the mean and trend in land-use change emissions over the last decade, (2)a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude ofthe land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparentdiscrepancy between the different methods for the ocean sink outside thetropics, particularly in the Southern Ocean. This living data updatedocuments changes in the methods and data sets used in this new globalcarbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cyclecompared with previous publications of this data set (Friedlingstein et al.,2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014,2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2020 (Friedlingstein et al., 2020).

Item Type: Article
Authors/Creators:Friedlingstein, P and O'Sullivan, M and Jones, MW and Andrew, RM and Hauck, J and Olsen, A and Peters, GP and Peters, W and Pongratz, J and Sitch, S and Le Quere, C and Canadell, JG and Ciais, P and Jackson, RB and Alin, S and Aragao, LEOC and Arneth, A and Arora, V and Bates, NR and Becker, M and Benoit-Cattin, A and Bittig, HC and Bopp, L and Bultan, S and Chandra, N and Chevallier, F and Chini, LP and Evans, W and Florentie, L and Forster, PM and Gasser, T and Gehlen, M and Gilfillan, D and Gkritzalis, T and Gregor, L and Gruber, N and Harris, I and Hartung, K and Haverd, V and Houghton, RA and Ilyina, T and Jain, AK and Joetzjer, E and Kadono, K and Kato, E and Kitidis, V and Korsbakken, JI and Landschutzer, P and Lefevre, N and Lenton, A and Lienert, S and Liu, Z and Lombardozzi, D and Marland, G and Metzl, N and Munro, DR and Nabel, JEMS and Nakaoka, SI and Niwa, Y and O'Brien, K and Ono, T and Palmer, PI and Pierrot, D and Poulter, B and Resplandy, L and Robertson, E and Rodenbeck, C and Schwinger, J and Seferian, R and Skjelvan, I and Smith, AJP and Sutton, AJ and Tanhua, T and Tans, PP and Tian, H and Tilbrook, B and Van Der Werf, G and Vuichard, N and Walker, AP and Wanninkhof, R and Watson, AJ and Willis, D and Wiltshire, AJ and Yuan, W and Yue, X and Zaehle, S
Keywords: global carbon budget, carbon dioxide, climate change, CO2 emissions
Journal or Publication Title: Earth System Science Data
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
ISSN: 1866-3508
DOI / ID Number: 10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020
Copyright Information:

Copyright 2020 The Author(s)Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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