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Bushfire risk assessment - an integrated approach using GIS


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Atkinson, D, Janssen, V, Lucieer, A and Chladil, MA 2007 , 'Bushfire risk assessment - an integrated approach using GIS', paper presented at the Spatial Science Institute Biennial International Conference SSC2007, 14 -18 May 2007, Hobart, Tasmania.

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Risk is defined as “the chance of something happening that will impact on objectives”
and measured in terms of consequences and likelihood. Applying this to bushfires, the
likelihood component is the probability of a fire start (ignition) and spread (growth) and
the consequence component is the impact of this fire starting and spreading. Shields &
Tolhurst (2003) introduced a contemporary integrated approach to bushfire risk
analysis, incorporating the dynamic effects of bushfires. This study develops a method
of practically implementing this approach using currently available data. A worked
example for the greater Hobart area is provided using ignition, fire behaviour and fire
propagation models along with climate, fuel, terrain, historical ignition and asset data in
a Geographical Information System (GIS) environment.
An ignition model was produced based on the historical occurrence of bushfires and
human accessibility. This model was validated using independent data and was found to
be a reasonable predictor of likely ignition sources. A risk specific bushfire simulation
system was used to model the spread from ignition points to the urban interface for
seven representative fire weather conditions. The final risk map was developed based
on the linked probabilities of ignition, fire weather, spread, and urban penetration.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Poster)
Authors/Creators:Atkinson, D and Janssen, V and Lucieer, A and Chladil, MA
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© 2007 Spatial Sciences Institute

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